2. Phase-by-Phase Market Review
(1) Early January – Mid-March: Supply tightness expectations drive prices to historic peaks
At the start of H1, structural tightness in tungsten concentrate supply combined with rising expectations for tungsten’s strategic value extended the upward momentum from late 2025. Raw material prices doubled in just two and a half months from already high base levels. By early March, standard-grade tungsten concentrate exceeded RMB 1 million per tonne, ammonium paratungstate (APT) hit RMB 150,000 per tonne, and tungsten powder reached RMB 2,400 per kg, with tungsten carbide powder climbing to a historic high in parallel.
As tungsten carbide accounts for over 80% of the production cost of tungsten-based thermal spray powders, the rapid upstream surge directly pushed up powder costs substantially. Industry quotations were adjusted upward accordingly, putting significant cost pressure on downstream thermal spray operators.
(2) Mid-March – End of May: Deep correction erases year-to-date gains amid weak downstream demand
At high price levels, downstream processors reached their tolerance threshold for expensive raw materials, and concentrated profit-taking sentiment triggered a market reversal. The market shifted rapidly from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. Within just over two months, all 2026 year-to-date gains in major tungsten products were fully erased, with prices nearly halving. Tungsten carbide powder and cobalt powder retreated sharply in tandem, and thermal spray powder quotations entered a downward channel with notably weaker trading activity.
(3) End of May – End of June: Mild rebound followed by low-level range-bound trading
From late May to June, the tungsten market saw a phased rebound driven by easing capital pressure on upstream producers and restocking demand from downstream buyers at lower price points. However, the rebound was limited and short-lived due to lack of sustained demand momentum. The market gradually slipped into a weak range-bound pattern with thin trading and slow inventory destocking.
By the end of June, tungsten carbide powder fluctuated around RMB 1,100–1,200 per kg, and cobalt powder stood at roughly RMB 530 per kg. Correspondingly, prices of mainstream tungsten-based thermal spray powders fell to relatively low levels for the year, down more than 50% from the March peak.
II. 2026 Second Half Price Forecast
1. Core Judgment: High-level range-bound trading with downward-shifting central range; extreme swings unlikely
In the second half of 2026, prices of tungsten-based thermal spray powders will remain highly correlated with upstream tungsten raw material trends. The market will overall maintain a high-level range-bound pattern with a gradually declining central price range. The extreme surge-and-crash pattern seen in H1 is unlikely to repeat, and prices will gradually realign with supply-demand fundamentals.
Based on mainstream industry forecasts, core raw material tungsten carbide powder will most likely fluctuate in the RMB 1,000–1,200/kg range. Correspondingly, mainstream tungsten-based thermal spray powder prices will stay in the current range for narrow fluctuations, with an overall lower central range than the H1 average, but still significantly higher than the same period in 2025.
2. Key Influencing Factors
(1) Downside support: Structural supply tightness remains intact
As a strategic national resource, tungsten mine expansion has long lead times and slow capacity release. The underlying support from structural supply tightness on the upstream side still holds. Industry surveys show the market consensus for the bottom of tungsten concentrate prices is around RMB 400,000–500,000 per standard tonne, which provides clear cost support for tungsten carbide powder and limits room for prices to fall sharply below current levels.
(2) Upside pressure: Insufficient downstream demand recovery momentum
The deep price correction in H1 has fully reflected the downstream sector’s limited capacity to absorb high-priced raw materials. In H2, barring an unexpected recovery in demand from core downstream thermal spray sectors (aerospace, wind energy, petrochemicals, rail transit, etc.), powder procurement demand will remain cautious. This cannot support a sustained price rebound, making a return to early-year historic highs extremely unlikely.
(3) Uncertainties: Macro and international market disruptions persist
Against a backdrop of unstable global conditions, macroeconomic fluctuations, changes in import/export policies and shifts in market sentiment may still trigger phased short-term price fluctuations. Pulsed rebounds caused by partial supply-demand mismatches cannot be ruled out, but such moves are expected to be weak in sustainability.
3. Industry Operational Recommendations
Inventory management: Prioritize on-demand procurement, and make moderate restocking at price lows. Avoid hoarding at high prices to reduce inventory impairment risks from raw material volatility.
Order quotation: For long-term delivery orders, it is recommended to establish a price adjustment mechanism linked to upstream raw material prices to hedge against cost fluctuation risks.
Market tracking: Keep close track of core quotations for tungsten concentrate and tungsten carbide powder, make rational market judgments, and avoid emotional trading decisions.